WS #7638

The dominant narrative remains the escalating Middle East geopolitical risk with oil above $100/bbl, but this window shows a significant de-escalation signal: the US Treasury is issuing a temporary 30-day general license to allow access to Russian oil stranded at sea, as confirmed by Treasury Secretary Bessent and Bloomberg. This is a counter-signal to the oil supply crisis, potentially dampening crude prices and inflation fears. Separately, a US official denied Iranian state media reports that the US agreed to lift oil sanctions during talks, maintaining pressure on Iran. The NextEra-Dominion $67B merger continues to be covered, with Moody's shifting Dominion's outlook. The EU economic minister warned of a 'stagflationary shock', adding to macro concerns. Bond vigilantes are returning as inflation and deficits hammer long-end debt. Gold and precious metals are dropping on US rate hike expectations. Bitcoin and crypto are down sharply (BTC -2.36%, ETH -4.23%). On the corporate side, Claritev shares were halted on circuit breaker to the upside after denying DOJ antitrust probe allegations. Steve Weiss trimmed his META position on CNBC. The narrative arc is DE-ESCALATING on the oil supply front due to the Russian oil waiver, but the broader inflation and rate hike fears persist.