WS #7685

The dominant narrative remains the de-escalation in US-Iran tensions, with Trump postponing a military strike on Iran. Turkish FM signals that Iran and the US can meet in the middle via talks, reinforcing the de-escalation theme. However, Iran has established a 'Persian Gulf Strait Authority' charging ~$2M per vessel to transit the Strait of Hormuz, effectively turning it into a toll road. This is a new development that could keep oil prices elevated despite the postponed strike. Separately, the SEC is expected to issue an innovation exemption for tokenized stocks as early as this week, which could boost crypto and fintech stocks. China's CSI Rare Earth Index is down 3%, which may signal weakness in Chinese demand or trade tensions. Japan's GDP beat estimates at 2.1% annualized, but exports to the Middle East are expected to dent Q2 growth. The Trump administration unveiled a $1.7bn 'Anti-Weaponization Fund' to compensate allies, which may be seen as political noise but could have implications for Treasury stability. The BTCFi protocol Echo was exploited, minting 1,000 eBTC on Monad, which is bearish for DeFi sentiment. Overall, the US-Iran situation is de-escalating but with a new toll mechanism that could sustain oil prices, while tokenized stock regulation is a positive catalyst for crypto markets.