WS #7694

The dominant narrative in this window is a DE-ESCALATION in geopolitical tensions, with multiple sources corroborating that Brent crude dropped 2% to $109.41 and US WTI fell 1.3% to $107.25 after President Trump suggested diplomacy with Iran could succeed. This counters the previous bearish macro thesis of escalating Iran conflict. European stocks ticked higher on hopes for a US-Iran peace deal, and Singapore stocks reclaimed record highs on haven demand. However, the OECD warns that the Iran war is pressuring growth and inflation, and the White House found Iran's new nuclear deal proposal insufficient. On the economic data front, UK unemployment unexpectedly rose to 5% and payrolled jobs fell 100,000 in April, the third-largest monthly drop since 2014, as the Iran war snuffs out the economic upturn. Japan's Q1 GDP beat forecasts with 0.5% growth. In corporate news, Fujikura shares plunged 17% after a three-year forecast fell short of AI expectations, and Blackstone committed $5B equity to launch a joint venture with Google creating a new TPU cloud with 500 MW capacity by 2027. The RBA minutes showed an 8-1 rate hike vote with inflation projected above target until 2027. Bitcoin is trading around $77,050, down ~6% from recent highs, with a Polymarket question on whether it will dip to $76,000 today. The narrative arc is DE-ESCALATING on geopolitical risks, with the oil price drop being the most market-moving development, but the macro damage from the Iran war is becoming evident in UK labor data and OECD warnings.