WS #7729

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating US-Iran tension, with multiple sources reporting that President Trump warned Iran of potential military strikes if ceasefire progress is not achieved, while also stating that China has provided assurances regarding arms transfers to Iran. This is corroborated by Al Jazeera reporting Trump saying Xi assured him China would not send weapons to Iran, and by a Polymarket trade on 'Iran closes its airspace by May 21?' indicating market concern. The narrative arc is ESCALATING, as Trump's warning of strikes and Vance's statement that the US can restart the military campaign add pressure. This development has direct implications for oil prices (WTI, Brent) and energy stocks, while also weighing on broader market sentiment. Separately, Google I/O 2026 is underway with announcements of Gemini 3.5 Flash (twice as cheap as rival models) and Gemini Omni for video, which is positive for GOOGL but the market impact is likely contained. NVDA earnings tomorrow are a major event, with options signaling a $350-355 billion market value swing. The Trump-Eli Lilly stock timing report is a political noise item but could create headline risk for LLY. Home Depot's outlook tied to storm activity is a minor negative for HD. Overall, the US-Iran situation is the key market-moving theme.