WS #7774

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict via Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, corroborated by multiple sources (OSINTtechnical, Kyiv Independent, Reddit). This adds to supply disruption risks for oil, bullish for energy (XOM, CVX) and bearish for airlines (DAL, UAL). Separately, the Xi-Putin meeting in Beijing shows deepening China-Russia ties, with Xi calling for an end to Middle East fighting but no mention of Ukraine, and Trump's envoy Witkoff set to visit Russia. This geopolitical backdrop supports oil prices. On the macro front, global long bond yields are at nearly two-decade highs (Bloomberg), pressuring equities and growth stocks. The US Senate advanced a resolution to curb Trump's Iran war powers (Cointelegraph), a counter-signal to geopolitical risk. China continues to negotiate extending the trade truce (Bloomberg), but Treasury Secretary Bessent says the US is 'not in a rush' to extend (Seeking Alpha), creating uncertainty. Alibaba unveiled a new AI chip (Investing.com), a positive for Chinese tech but limited US market impact. The overall narrative is one of escalating geopolitical risk (Ukraine drone strikes, Xi-Putin alignment) countered by the Senate resolution on Iran, with bond yields rising as a persistent headwind.