WS #7778

The dominant signal in this window is the ongoing US-Iran conflict narrative, with multiple sources corroborating that Trump gave Iran a 2-3 day deadline for a deal, while Iran warns of 'new fronts'. However, a key counter-signal emerged: two Chinese tankers carrying ~4M barrels of crude exited the Strait of Hormuz, and a South Korean vessel is en route, suggesting a potential de-escalation in the blockade. This is corroborated by Reuters and Seeking Alpha. Separately, Bank Indonesia surprised markets with a 50bp rate hike to stabilize the rupiah, a significant emerging market signal. The EU cleared a major hurdle to finalize a US trade pact, avoiding Trump tariff hikes, which is bullish for European equities and industrials. On the corporate front, AMC CEO Adam Aron bought 250,000 shares, a bullish insider signal. The Russia-China summit continues with a joint statement on deepening strategic partnership, but no new market-moving specifics. The UK inflation data (2.8%) is stale and not repeated. The US Senate advanced a war-powers resolution to end the Iran war, which dampens geopolitical risk premium. Overall, the Iran situation shows signs of de-escalation (tanker movement, diplomatic progress) but remains fragile with Trump's deadline.