WS #7800

The dominant signal in this window is the confirmation that former Cuban President Raul Castro has been indicted in the United States, corroborated by Reuters, a senior Trump administration official, and multiple social media sources. This marks a dramatic escalation in US-Cuba tensions, following the earlier oil blockade and reports of US surveillance aircraft near Cuba. Polymarket activity shows increased betting on US-Cuba conflict, including invasion and strike scenarios. This development reinforces the existing geopolitical risk narrative and could drive safe-haven flows into gold and energy stocks, while pressuring Cuba-exposed equities like Sherritt International (which is selling its controlling stake to avoid sanctions). Separately, Meta CEO told employees he does not expect more company-wide layoffs this year, a positive signal for META that contradicts the broader tech layoff narrative. The IEA report that soaring oil prices are driving EV sales to 30% of the market is a second-order effect of the oil supply crisis, bullish for EV makers like TSLA and bearish for traditional automakers. The dominant narrative is ESCALATING on US-Cuba tensions and oil supply disruption, with a partial counter-signal from Meta's layoff pause.