WS #7803

The dominant signal in this window is the sharp drop in oil prices, driven by reports of three supertankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz and Trump's comments that the US is in the 'final stages' of Iran negotiations. WTI crude is down ~3.7%, with Brent also falling sharply. This is a partial de-escalation of the Strait of Hormuz blockade narrative, acting as a counter-signal to the prevailing geopolitical risk thesis. Separately, Meta is cutting ~8,000 jobs (10% of headcount) while moving 7,000 staff into AI groups, with 2026 capex of $125-145B, signaling continued AI investment focus. Nvidia earnings are the key event after the close, with options pricing a 7% move. Dark pool activity shows a $384M block in MU and a $102.5M block in AMD, suggesting institutional positioning ahead of Nvidia. The US DOJ indicted former Cuban President Raúl Castro, escalating US-Cuba tensions, but this is a carry-forward from the previous window with no new data. The dominant narrative is DE-ESCALATING on Iran/oil, with oil price drop as the key market-moving signal.