WS #7816

The dominant signal in this window is the release of the FOMC minutes from the April 28-29 meeting, which revealed a hawkish tilt: a majority of participants indicated that rate hikes would likely become appropriate if inflation persists above 2%, and many policymakers wanted to remove the easing bias from the statement. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Bloomberg, Reuters, Seeking Alpha, CNBC, and various social media posts). The minutes also noted that elevated energy prices and tariffs could embed inflation more broadly, and that the Middle East conflict could necessitate keeping policy restrictive for longer. This is a bearish signal for growth stocks and rate-sensitive sectors, and counters any lingering dovish expectations. Separately, Meta confirmed 8,000 job cuts (10% of workforce), reported by Al Jazeera and corroborated by social media, which is bearish for META but consistent with cost-cutting narratives. The US indicted former Cuban President Raúl Castro for murder, a geopolitical development that may increase tensions but has limited direct US market impact. Oil prices continue to decline, boosting airline stocks (CCL, DAL, UAL) and consumer discretionary, while precious metals rally on falling oil and yields. The UAE pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz reached 50% completion, a long-term bearish signal for oil prices. Nvidia earnings are due after the bell, with high anticipation. The Iran ceasefire narrative remains stable with no new escalation, as Iran's president reiterated openness to diplomacy. Overall, the FOMC minutes are the highest-significance item, reinforcing a hawkish Fed stance.