WS #7821

The dominant signal in this window is the release of the Fed minutes from the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, which revealed a majority of officials warned that rate hikes may be necessary if inflation persists above 2%, with the Iran war explicitly cited as an aggravating factor. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Bloomberg, CNBC, NBC, and several Bluesky posts) and represents a hawkish shift that could pressure growth stocks and support the dollar. Separately, Trump issued warnings regarding Iran, stating that a complete response to a proposal is required to avoid rapid escalation, and had a call with Turkey's Erdogan, while Eurasia Group assessed the current deal as a 30-day ceasefire extension that has angered Israel. These Iran-related developments suggest the situation is stable but fragile, with no de-escalation breakthrough. On the corporate side, OpenAI is reportedly set to file for IPO as soon as this Friday, targeting a September listing, which could boost sentiment for AI-related names. Meta CEO Zuckerberg's comments on team efficiency (50-100 people now taking 10) reinforce the cost-cutting narrative. The US DOJ indicted former Cuban President Raul Castro over the 1996 plane downing, escalating US-Cuba tensions. A federal judge issued a preliminary injunction requiring compliance with the Presidential Records Act, blocking the Trump administration from disregarding it. The federal budget deficit is projected to hit $2 trillion this fiscal year. Nike stock is trading higher on softer energy prices and easing Treasury yields. Overall, the macro narrative is dominated by Fed hawkishness and Iran uncertainty, with the Fed minutes being the most actionable signal for markets.