WS #7823

The dominant narrative from the previous window (Fed hawkishness, Iran tensions, OpenAI IPO) remains largely intact, but several new developments have emerged. The Fed minutes showing most officials see rate hikes if inflation stays high reinforce the hawkish macro backdrop, pressuring growth stocks. However, a counter-signal has appeared: the UK agreed a £3.7bn trade deal with six Gulf states, and the UAE's oil pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz is 50% complete, which could ease oil supply fears. Additionally, the US indicted former Cuban leader Raul Castro, adding geopolitical noise but limited direct market impact. On the corporate front, Nvidia's Q1 earnings analysis is out (Bloomberg), and OpenAI is reportedly filing for IPO as soon as Friday, which could steal thunder from SpaceX's anticipated IPO. Goldman Sachs had its best day in 13 months, adding 300 points to the DJIA. Reddit stock is under pressure despite broad market gains, indicating stock-specific weakness. The bond market selloff may be just beginning, with TS Lombard predicting 10-year yield to hit 6%. Consumer staples outperformance is being flagged as a potential warning sign for equities. The Iran ceasefire narrative appears stable with no major escalation, but Polymarket trades show continued interest in Iran-related outcomes.