WS #7826

The dominant narrative from the previous window (Fed hawkishness, Iran tensions, OpenAI IPO) remains largely stable, but several new data points have emerged. The Fed minutes released in this window confirm a hawkish tilt, with more officials warning of a rate-hike scenario, which reinforces the bearish macro thesis for growth stocks. However, this is partially offset by strong earnings from Intuit and a bullish guidance raise, suggesting selective tech strength. On the geopolitical front, the Iran situation shows signs of escalation: Iran's 'Persian Gulf Strait Authority' has revealed a controlled maritime zone in the Strait of Hormuz, and transit requires authorization, which counters the de-escalation thesis from the previous window. Meanwhile, OpenAI is preparing to file for an IPO in the coming weeks, a positive for AI sentiment. NVDA earnings are due after close, creating event risk. The Dow logged its best day of May as Treasury yields and oil tumbled, with airlines and cruise stocks surging, indicating a risk-on shift. Overall, the window is characterized by a mix of hawkish Fed signals, geopolitical escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, and selective corporate catalysts, with NVDA earnings being the highest-impact event in the next 1-8 hours.