WS #7833
The dominant signal in this window is the SpaceX IPO filing, which reveals a $1.75 trillion valuation target, $18.67B in 2025 revenue, and 18,712 BTC holdings worth $1.29B. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Benzinga, NPR, CNBC, TechCrunch, The Verge, CoinDesk, Alpaca) and is the highest-significance event. NVIDIA's Q1 earnings beat (revenue $81.6B vs $79.2B est., EPS $1.85 vs $1.78) and strong Q2 guidance ($90.6B vs $87.2B est.) are also high-signal, with the CFO stating 'customers do not buy GPUs, they build AI factories' and reaffirming $1T revenue forecast for Blackwell/Rubin. However, a potential dividend cut controversy surfaced on social media, creating a MAG7 carve-out signal that contradicts the bullish macro. Geopolitical noise includes Iran ceasefire negotiations (Trump says 'final stages'), Russia nuclear drills, and US indictment of Raul Castro, but these lack new actionable data. UK cost-of-living measures (free bus travel, food tariff cuts) are noise for US markets. The narrative is STABLE for SpaceX IPO and NVIDIA earnings, with the dividend cut concern as a new counter-signal.
Key developments
- SpaceX files S-1 for record IPO at ~$1.75T valuation, reveals $18.67B revenue and 18,712 BTC holdings
- NVIDIA Q1 earnings beat with record revenue and strong Q2 guidance; CFO reaffirms $1T revenue target for Blackwell/Rubin
- NVIDIA dividend cut controversy emerges on social media during earnings call
- Trump says US-Iran war in 'final stages'; Senate rejects Trump's Iran approach
- Russia stages nuclear strike drills targeting European airfields; Iran warns of wider war