WS #7849
The dominant signal in this window is the BOJ Koeda speech, which delivered a hawkish tilt: underlying inflation is already around 2%, and the BOJ needs to continue raising rates at an appropriate pace, with risks that crude oil persistence could push inflation above 2%. This is a clear escalation of BOJ hawkishness, directly impacting USD/JPY and Japanese equities. Separately, Australia employment data missed badly (-18.6K vs +15K expected), sending AUD lower and signaling economic weakness. On geopolitics, Iran-US deal rumors persist with a specific framework ($25B, enrichment at 3.67%), and Xi hosted Putin in Beijing, reinforcing the China-Russia axis. TSLA saw multiple short liquidations ($32K, $7.1K) as the stock rallied, and MU also saw short squeezes ($75.6K, $38K). The Nvidia China concession narrative from the previous window carries forward as ongoing. The narrative arc on BOJ is ESCALATING (hawkish), on Australia is BEARISH (weak jobs), on Iran is STABLE (deal talks continue).
Key developments
- BOJ Koeda: Underlying inflation at 2%, need for continued rate hikes
- Australia employment misses badly, unemployment rises to 4.5%
- Iran-US deal framework emerges: $25B, sanctions relief, 3.67% enrichment
- TSLA short liquidations as stock rallies
- MU short liquidations as stock rallies
- Xi hosts Putin in Beijing
- Nvidia concedes China AI chip market to Huawei (ongoing)