WS #7858

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the US-Iran conflict and its impact on oil markets, with multiple sources corroborating that oil is being capped near $100/barrel due to supply losses from the Hormuz blockade. The UAE's ADNOC CEO confirmed the blockade has caused the most severe energy supply disruption in history, with over 1 billion barrels lost and 100 million additional barrels lost weekly. A second bypass pipeline is 50% complete but won't be operational until 2027. Separately, OpenAI is preparing to confidentially file for IPO as soon as Friday, working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, which could be one of the largest public debuts in history. AMD announced over $10 billion in Taiwan ecosystem investments and production ramp of 'Venice' EPYC processor on TSMC 2nm. Australia employment data missed sharply (-18.6K vs +16.7K expected), signaling economic weakness. Japan exports beat expectations (14.8% vs 9.3% est.), while Japan PMI services fell to 50.0 from 51.0. The UK political turmoil continues with Andy Burnham confirmed as by-election candidate, pressuring gilts and sterling. Stellantis will present a new strategic plan today at Investor Day. The AI narrative is escalating with OpenAI IPO and AMD investments, while the oil/geopolitical theme is escalating with the Hormuz blockade and Iran war. The Australia employment miss is a new bearish signal for the AUD and risk sentiment.