WS #7864

The dominant signal in this window is the European Commission's sharp downgrade of Eurozone growth and inflation forecasts, explicitly citing the Iran war as an energy shock. Eurozone 2026 GDP growth was cut to 0.9% from 1.2%, while inflation was revised up to 3.0% from 1.9%. This corroborates the escalating European recession risk narrative from the previous cycle. Separately, Nvidia's record earnings (revenue $81.6B, +85% YoY) failed to impress investors, with shares falling 1.6% after-hours, indicating the 'law of large numbers' is capping upside. On the geopolitical front, Iran-US talks continue with Pakistan mediating, and Trump calling Iranian leaders 'reasonable people', suggesting de-escalation remains possible. Oil prices fell on the EU growth downgrade, with Brent dropping $1 to $103.68/barrel. A notable counter-signal: the EU Commission's Dombrovskis stated the EU must cut reliance on imported fossil fuels, which could support domestic energy transition plays. Meta layoffs chatter and a bearish technical setup on META were noted, contradicting the broader tech narrative.