WS #7877

The dominant narrative in this window is the escalating Iran/Hormuz crisis, with multiple cross-corroborated signals indicating both escalation and potential de-escalation. Iran is accelerating military capability restoration with Chinese and Russian assistance, while simultaneously mulling the latest US peace proposal as Trump claims the war is in 'final stages.' The IEA has signaled willingness to take further action after releasing 400 million barrels, and Iran is in talks with Oman over a permanent toll system for Hormuz. These counter-signals partially offset the bearish oil thesis. Separately, SpaceX has filed for IPO, Blockchain.com has filed confidentially, and a major REIT merger between Equity Residential and AvalonBay Communities was announced. Nvidia earnings were digested with a Jefferies price target raise to $300, but NVDA shares were down 2% on the day. The US manufacturing PMI expanded at the fastest pace in four years due to front-running of Iran-war price pressures. The dominant theme is ESCALATING on the Iran front, with counter-signals from IEA reserves and diplomatic talks.