WS #7908

From 498 msgs · 10 key-dev

The dominant narrative remains the escalating Iran/Strait of Hormuz crisis, with a senior Iranian source telling Reuters that no deal has been reached yet but gaps have narrowed, and Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz remains a sticking point. This is corroborated by multiple Polymarket contracts actively trading on Strait of Hormuz normalization and US-Iran peace deal timelines, indicating sustained market attention. A Bloomberg report citing Rapidan Energy Group warns that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz through August raises the risk of an economic downturn close to the scale of the Great Recession in 2008. However, a counter-signal emerged: the Dow logged its first record close in over three months, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished higher as oil prices fell on hopes of a US–Iran deal, suggesting some de-escalation optimism is being priced in. On the corporate side, several high-signal earnings reports were released after the close: Ross Stores (ROST) reported Q1 EPS of $2.02, beating by $0.30 on revenue of $6.01B, beating by $360M, and raised FY2026 guidance above estimates. Workday (WDAY) popped 9.5% after hours on Q1 results and guidance that topped estimates. Zoom Communications (ZM) beat Q1 estimates and raised FY2027 guidance. Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) beat Q4 estimates and issued FY2027 sales guidance of $7.9B-$8.1B. Deckers Outdoor (DECK) beat Q4 estimates and issued FY2027 guidance above consensus. The Estée Lauder Companies and Puig ended merger discussions, with Estée Lauder reiterating confidence in its strategic vision. The Export-Import Bank of the United States approved a $2.9 billion loan for Perpetua Resources' Stibnite Gold Project, a high-signal development for critical minerals and defense supply chain. The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board warned on AI-fueled valuations, adding a note of caution to the tech narrative. Overall, the Iran/Hormuz escalation is the highest-signal theme, with potential for oil price spikes and broad market risk-off, but the positive earnings beats and record Dow close provide a counter-narrative of resilience.

Key developments

  • Iran nuclear talks: no deal yet, gaps narrowed, Strait of Hormuz control remains sticking point
  • Ross Stores Q1 EPS $2.02 beats by $0.30, revenue $6.01B beats by $360M, raises FY2026 guidance
  • Workday Q1 Non-GAAP EPS $2.66 beats by $0.14, revenue $2.54B beats by $20M, shares pop 9.5% after hours
  • Zoom Communications Q1 Non-GAAP EPS $1.55 beats by $0.13, revenue $1.24B beats by $20M, raises FY2027 guidance
  • Take-Two Interactive Q4 GAAP EPS -$0.32 beats by $0.20, revenue $1.68B beats by $130M, FY2027 sales guidance $7.9B-$8.1B
  • Deckers Outdoor Q4 EPS $0.96 beats $0.83, revenue $1.119B beats $1.093B, FY2027 guidance above consensus, $3.5B buyback increase
  • Estée Lauder and Puig end merger discussions; Estée Lauder reiterates confidence in strategic vision
  • Export-Import Bank approves $2.9B loan for Perpetua Resources' Stibnite Gold Project, developing only domestic antimony reserve