WS #7929

The dominant theme from the previous window—Iran oil supply disruption—remains active but shows signs of de-escalation. Multiple sources (Al Jazeera, BBC) report 'signs of progress' in US-Iran peace talks, and Polymarket contracts on 'Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31' are being traded, suggesting a potential diplomatic breakthrough. This counters the prior bearish oil thesis. Separately, SpaceX scrubbed the Starship V3 launch (NBC), a minor negative for space/defense sentiment. SoftBank surged 12% on AI trade momentum from Nvidia earnings, reinforcing the AI infrastructure bull case. The India rupee jumped after central bank intervention, with rate hike considered, signaling emerging market stress. The China national team ETF stake reduction story is recirculated but not new. The UAE pipeline bypassing Strait of Hormuz is 50% complete, a medium-term counter to oil disruption risk. Overall, the Iran narrative is DE-ESCALATING, while AI trade continues to ESCALATE.