WS #7966

The dominant narrative remains the ESCALATING stagflation theme, reinforced by multiple data points in this window. US economic confidence hit a record low per Gallup (Al Jazeera, AP), with 76% expecting worsening conditions amid the Iran war. ECB's Muller sees a 'good case' for a June rate hike due to the energy surge, and Bloomberg reports big euro-zone economies are enduring an unfolding inflation shock. This hawkish repricing counters any dovish thesis. On the geopolitical front, Ukraine's Foreign Minister says US-brokered talks with Russia are running out of steam, signaling potential stalling in diplomatic negotiations. Separately, Iran appears to be allowing greater passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a possible de-escalation signal that could dampen oil supply fears. In corporate news, Dell stock is up nearly 30% in two weeks after Trump's 'go out and buy a Dell' comment, and Meta launched a Reddit-like app 'Forum', causing RDDT to drop on competition fears. The WHO raised the Ebola public health risk to 'very high' in DR Congo, but this remains a low global risk. The stagflation theme is ESCALATING with new data points and official warnings, while the Fed rate hike narrative is shifting from dovish to hawkish.