WS #8036

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict, which is ESCALATING. Multiple sources corroborate that the Trump administration is preparing for a new round of military strikes against Iran, even as diplomatic talks show some progress. CBS News reported the US is preparing fresh strikes, while Axios reported Trump says he is "50/50" on a deal or bombs. Iran has offered to scale back uranium enrichment above 20%, and a memorandum of understanding text reportedly includes a commitment not to develop nuclear weapons. However, Iran's top negotiator also stated there will be no compromise on "legitimate rights" and threatened a "more crushing" response if war resumes. The UK has refused to join the Strait of Hormuz blockade, and the RIAT airshow has been cancelled because Fairford airbase is being used for US bomber missions against Iran. Oil price risks remain elevated, with Evercore warning crude could climb toward $150/bbl due to Hormuz closure keeping 14 million bpd at risk. Citi Research warned that El Niño and potential Hormuz disruptions could drive agricultural prices sharply higher. The US blockade has redirected 100 commercial vessels. The situation is clearly escalating, with no de-escalation signals in this window. Separately, Ukraine continues drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, hitting the Sheskharis oil terminal and a chemical plant. Meta launched a Forum app seen as a Reddit competitor, causing RDDT to drop ~6%. Uber proposed buying Delivery Hero for €33/share. Oura confidentially filed for a US IPO.