WS #8038

The US-Iran situation remains the dominant market narrative, with the window showing a slight tilt toward de-escalation. Axios reports Trump says he is "50/50" on a deal or bombs and will meet envoys to decide on Sunday, corroborated by a Bluesky post citing the same Axios reporter. Qatar's emir held a call with Trump discussing Pakistan-led de-escalation, and Pakistan's army chief wrapped up a "highly productive" visit to Tehran. However, Iran's top negotiator warns of a "more crushing" response if war resumes, and CBS reports the US is preparing fresh strikes. The narrative arc is STABLE with mixed signals, but the diplomatic channel appears active. Separately, Ukraine-Russia energy war continues to escalate: Ukrainian drone strikes hit Russian oil terminals and refineries, including a fire at an oil terminal in Novorossiysk, and Russia is reportedly preparing a strike using the "Oreshnik" missile. In corporate news, Delivery Hero confirmed a takeover offer from Uber at €33/share, and spot bitcoin ETFs saw $1.26 billion in outflows last week. The TSLA buyer activity note is a minor positive for Tesla.