WS #8065

The dominant signal in this window is the continued escalation of US-Iran peace deal prospects, now corroborated by multiple high-credibility sources including Trump's own statements via Reuters and Bluesky, a Washington Times source, and Polymarket trade activity. Trump confirmed the deal is 'largely negotiated' and will be announced 'shortly,' with the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened. This represents a major de-escalation of the prevailing war narrative and has direct implications for oil prices (bearish), defense stocks (bearish), and broader market risk appetite (bullish). The AP report on Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure (Grushovaya Balka storage) adds upward pressure on oil prices, partially offsetting the Iran deal signal. The narrative arc is ESCALATING on the peace deal front, with multiple sources converging on an imminent announcement.