WS #8085

The dominant signal in this window is the White House shooting incident, which has been resolved with the suspect killed by Secret Service. A bystander was also wounded. President Trump was inside and is safe; the lockdown has been lifted. This is a contained security event with no ongoing threat to markets, but it adds to a pattern of security incidents near the White House (third in two months). Separately, the Iran peace deal narrative continues with conflicting signals: Trump claims the deal is 'largely negotiated' and will reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran's Fars news agency disputes this. VP Vance made an unplanned return to Washington, and Trump summoned his national security team for a meeting on Iran, suggesting the deal is not yet finalized. Russia-Ukraine tensions are escalating: Russia struck Bila Tserkva with an Oreshnik IRBM, and Zelensky warns of a massive combined strike on Kyiv within 24 hours. The US embassy in Kyiv has warned of a potential significant air attack. This escalation could impact energy markets and defense stocks. The White House shooting and Iran deal developments are cross-corroborated by multiple sources (BBC, GDELT, Bluesky, Seeking Alpha), raising their significance. The overall narrative arc is one of geopolitical tension (Iran deal uncertainty, Russia-Ukraine escalation) with a contained security incident. The Iran deal narrative is STABLE but with conflicting signals; the Russia-Ukraine situation is ESCALATING.