WS #8115

The dominant theme in this window is the US-Iran deal narrative, which is showing signs of DE-ESCALATION despite earlier optimism. Multiple sources report that the S&P 500 perpetual futures hit an all-time high on Hyperliquid as the US announced a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Brent crude oil prices fell on the same platform. However, Iran's Tasnim news agency stated that the deal may still be canceled, and Iran's military advisor warned of NPT withdrawal if a 'hostile invasion' occurs in the Persian Gulf. This creates a mixed signal: the market is pricing in a deal, but Iranian hardliners are pushing back. Separately, Ukraine struck a major Russian oil pumping station supplying Moscow Oblast, and satellite imagery shows significant damage to the Ryazan Oil Refinery. These strikes could tighten Russian fuel supply and support oil prices. Additionally, Standard Chartered settled a £1.5bn Iran sanctions lawsuit, removing a legal overhang for the bank. A suspect was killed after opening fire near the White House, but this appears to be an isolated incident with limited market impact. The AI race narrative continues with NVIDIA's Blackwell Ultra announcement, but this is not new in this window. Overall, the Iran deal remains the key variable: if confirmed, it would be bullish for equities and bearish for oil; if it collapses, the reverse.