WS #8119

The dominant signal in this window is a confirmed US-Iran deal in principle to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reported by multiple sources (NYT, Seeking Alpha, Bloomberg, BBC, and multiple Bluesky posts). This is a high-significance development that directly counters the prevailing oil supply crisis thesis. A supertanker with Iraqi crude has already exited the Persian Gulf, indicating tangible progress. The deal, if finalized, would dramatically ease energy supply bottlenecks, lower oil prices, and reduce geopolitical risk premiums. However, the deal is not yet finalized; sensitive issues remain unresolved. Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon and a Pakistan train bombing are noise relative to the Hormuz deal. The SpaceX IPO filing (S-1) is a notable but secondary signal for tech and IPO markets. Goldman Sachs' report on fund rotation from software to semiconductors is a sector-level signal. The White House shooting is a domestic security event but has limited direct market impact. The dominant narrative is the US-Iran deal, which is ESCALATING in significance as details emerge.