WS #8135

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating US-Iran peace deal narrative, with multiple cross-corroborated developments. A tanker carrying Iraqi oil to China has exited the Gulf amid Hormuz talks, signaling potential de-escalation of the Strait of Hormuz crisis. However, Senate Republicans are casting doubt on a potential peace deal, and President Trump has issued new threats against Iran during ongoing negotiations. This creates a mixed but high-significance geopolitical backdrop. Separately, Anthropic is in early-stage talks to rent Microsoft's Maia AI chip capacity, per Bloomberg and CNBC, which could impact the AI infrastructure trade. The bond market alarm from SocGen's Albert Edwards (echoes of 2007) and the Fed's repo market cash splash are carry-forward themes. The White House shooting is a tragic but isolated event with no direct market impact. Overall, the Iran deal narrative is the primary market mover, with oil prices and related sectors likely to be affected.