WS #8146

The dominant signal in this window is the conflicting US-Iran deal narrative, which is driving oil prices and equity futures. Multiple sources (NYT, Bloomberg, BBC, Al Jazeera) report a preliminary agreement in principle to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and dispose of Iran's 60% enriched uranium, pending approval from Trump and Iran's Supreme Leader. However, the NYT also reports that reopening is still a question mark, and Trump told negotiators 'not to rush' into a deal. An Arab official says gaps remain 'significant,' and Iran warns the agreement could be cancelled due to US obstruction on frozen assets. Oil prices fell more than 3% (Brent to $98.12/bb, lowest in 2 weeks) after the administration downplayed hopes of a deal soon, but the conflicting headlines create uncertainty. Equity futures rallied (S&P 500 +0.5%, Nasdaq +0.6%, Nikkei futures +1.1%) as markets price in some Hormuz de-escalation, while Treasury futures jumped (10Y +12 ticks, 30Y +17 ticks) and Fed fund futures rallied 6 ticks. The Russia-Ukraine situation is escalating with a ballistic missile threat from Crimea, a massive drone attack on northern Ukraine, and Ukraine striking a major Russian oil pumping station. A blast in Quetta killed 24 and derailed a train. The Jardine Matheson acquisition of I-MED Radiology for $2.4B is a sector-specific M&A signal but not broad market-moving. The dominant theme is the Iran deal narrative, which is STABLE but with conflicting signals—the preliminary agreement is a positive development, but the administration's downplaying and Iran's warnings create uncertainty. The oil price decline and equity rally suggest markets are leaning toward de-escalation, but the gaps remain significant.