WS #8169

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran peace deal narrative, but this window shows a clear de-escalation from 'imminent deal' to 'framework only' with significant caveats. Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson made multiple statements: they have reached conclusions on many topics but are NOT close to signing a deal; they will not take tolls on the Strait of Hormuz; services provided would require a price but should not be presented as tolls; and the end of war on all fronts including Lebanon will be part of a potential deal. Separately, Rubio said the US will find 'another way' if Iran talks fail, and Trump told negotiators not to rush. This corroborates the prior narrative that the deal is not imminent, tempering the oil price decline and equity rally. European shares climbed to over two-month highs on Iran-US peace optimism, but the new statements suggest the optimism may be overdone. In other signals, a Chinese trading tycoon lost $1.7 billion in one day after curbs, and the Russell reconstitution shows Nvidia claiming the top spot while Walmart enters the top 10. The Russia-Ukraine conflict saw a massive attack on Kyiv using a nuclear-capable missile, killing 4. The Iran deal narrative is DE-ESCALATING from 'imminent' to 'framework only', which may support oil prices and dampen the equity rally.