WS #8215

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran ceasefire and Hormuz reopening narrative, which is STABLE with incremental confirmations rather than escalation. Multiple sources (Nikkei, Bloomberg, Financial Post, Al Jazeera, and various social media accounts) corroborate that a deal framework is in place: Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days of a US ceasefire, and oil prices have already declined 7% on this expectation. However, Iran's state news agency denied reports of agreeing to remove enriched uranium, calling them psychological warfare, and US officials reportedly told Iran that Trump's social media claims about a deal are "political theatre." This creates a mixed signal: the deal trajectory is intact but details remain contested, limiting further oil price downside near-term. European shares advanced on the oil decline, with Italian stocks hitting a record. Japan's supplementary budget to fight fuel costs confirms the oil shock is being felt globally. The Anthropic compute commitment news (Amazon $25B, Google $10B+$30B, Broadcom partnership) is unchanged from prior windows and remains a positive for AI infrastructure plays. A new wildfire in Los Angeles County was reported but lacks specifics on size or containment. Ukraine continues strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, knocking out six major refineries this month, which supports elevated energy prices and bullish US energy equities. The Israel-Lebanon front remains active with Liberation Day marked under bombardment, but no new escalation beyond ongoing strikes. Overall, the macro narrative is de-escalating on US-Iran but with counter-signals from Iran's denials and US officials' dismissals, keeping oil volatile in a $70-80 range.