WS #8225

The dominant signal in this window is a fresh escalation in the Israel-Iran-Hezbollah conflict, with multiple sources corroborating new military operations. Al Jazeera reports Israel will intensify its Lebanon offensive to 'crush' Hezbollah, while an Iranian official has warned Washington that Israeli attacks on Beirut could derail diplomatic efforts. Separately, the IDF spokesperson announced operation 'Sunrise of the Lions' struck strategic targets in Iran, and multiple explosions are reported near the Strait of Hormuz and across Iran's southern coast. Oil prices (WTI -6.52%, Brent -7.15%) are already reflecting the escalation, but the new operational announcements could sustain or deepen the move. A counter-signal emerges: US officials reportedly told Iran that Trump's Truth Social lie about a deal is 'political theatre' and 'not to worry about it,' suggesting the US is downplaying the escalation risk. This could dampen the bearish oil thesis if markets interpret it as de-escalation. The narrative arc is ESCALATING, but with a potential counter-signal from US-Iran backchannel communications. No other significant market-moving signals are present in this window.