WS #8231

The dominant signal in this window is a sharp de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict, with multiple sources reporting progress toward a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Bloomberg and a high-priority Bluesky post both cite Trump signaling that a deal is 'largely negotiated,' triggering a massive oil selloff: WTI crude futures fell $5.57 (-5.7%) to $91.15/bbl, and Brent crude tumbled below $99. S&P 500 futures rose 0.9% and Nasdaq futures rose 1.2% on the news, reflecting broad risk-on sentiment. However, a counter-signal emerged: Iranian air defenses shot down multiple US UAVs, including an MQ-9A Reaper, above Bandar Abbas, and US strikes hit IRGC speedboats in the Strait, indicating active hostilities persist despite diplomatic progress. Polymarket data shows heavy trading on Iran ceasefire and Hormuz traffic normalization contracts, confirming market focus. Separately, a M 6.7 earthquake struck northern Chile, but no major market impact is expected. The prevailing narrative is de-escalation optimism, but the military incidents act as a partial counter, preventing a full risk-on pivot. The META technical signal (RSI below 50) is a minor bearish note for tech.