WS #8233

The dominant narrative remains the de-escalation in US-Iran tensions, with oil prices declining and equity futures gaining. However, new developments in this window introduce counter-signals: Iranian air defenses shot down multiple US UAVs near Bandar Abbas, including an MQ-9A Reaper, and US Navy struck IRGC speedboats near Larak Island. These incidents raise the risk of ceasefire breakdown, partially offsetting the de-escalation narrative. Separately, Microsoft has started canceling Claude Code licenses, signaling a competitive move against Anthropic that could pressure AI-related tickers. Nvidia's net profit margin surged to a record 71%, reinforcing its AI dominance. Chevron insiders cashed out $65.4M in the same week, a potential bearish signal for the stock. Asian stocks are set to extend gains on US-Iran hopes, per Bloomberg. The overall theme is STABLE but with escalating military incidents that could reverse the de-escalation.