WS #8235

The dominant narrative has shifted sharply from US-Iran de-escalation to active military confrontation. Multiple sources (CENTCOM, Fox News, Reuters, OSINT accounts) confirm US forces conducted self-defense strikes in southern Iran, targeting missile launch sites and IRGC speedboats near Larak Island, killing four IRGC Navy personnel. This directly contradicts the prior ceasefire optimism and escalates tensions. The US military stated it will defend forces 'while using restraint during ongoing ceasefire,' indicating a fragile truce. Separately, Bloomberg reported the Treasury yield curve is flashing a higher-for-longer warning under Fed Chair Warsh, which could pressure growth stocks. Microsoft has started canceling Claude Code licenses, a competitive move against Anthropic that may pressure AI sentiment. The overall theme is ESCALATING US-Iran military incidents that could reverse the de-escalation narrative and spike oil prices, while the Treasury curve warning adds macro headwinds.