WS #8264

The dominant signal in this window is a sharp escalation in US-Iran hostilities, directly contradicting prior ceasefire optimism. Multiple sources (Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, Guardian, and jetstream.bsky) report that US and Israeli jets struck Iranian vessels near the Strait of Hormuz overnight, just hours after President Trump suggested peace talks were progressing. This has caused Brent crude to rebound sharply, with Polymarket contracts on Strait of Hormuz normalization and oil price spikes seeing heavy trading. Separately, Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon killed at least 12 in Mashgharah, straining the fragile ceasefire. The narrative arc is ESCALATING on the US-Iran conflict, with the Strait of Hormuz blockade likely to persist, supporting energy stocks and pressuring consumer/airline sectors. In corporate news, BP's board removed Chair Albert Manifold over governance concerns, sending BP shares down ~6% premarket. Strategy (MSTR) repurchased $1.5B in convertible debt using cash, a shift from its usual bitcoin accumulation. TeraWulf (WULF) acquired a 1+ GW HPC campus in Kentucky, driving its stock higher. Groupon (GRPN) raised FY EBITDA guidance after announcing 400 job cuts, shares up 5%. Marvell (MRVL) was upgraded by HSBC on AI networking strength. The Lilly/Verve VERVE-102 data showed 62% LDL reduction, positive for LLY. China is blocking top AI researchers from traveling abroad, a potential headwind for AI sector talent flows. Russia's Black Sea oil terminal resumed crude loading after a Ukrainian drone attack, a counter-signal to oil supply disruption fears.