WS #8300

The dominant narrative remains the Iran conflict, but this window shows a potential de-escalation signal: Bloomberg reports the US sees progress in Iran deal talks, and Asian stocks are set to rise on Iran deal hopes. This is corroborated by multiple Polymarket contracts on Iran peace deals and ceasefire extensions being actively traded. However, countervailing signals persist: Trump-aligned accounts boast about strikes on Iranian oil fields, and a Fox News military expert admitted Trump gave Iran leverage via the Strait of Hormuz. Oil is steady, suggesting the market is pricing in some deal optimism. Separately, Mubadala is offering a $1.91 billion block of GlobalFoundries shares, which could pressure GFS. IREN signed a $1.6B deal with Dell to deploy Blackwell systems, boosting AI infrastructure narrative. Bitcoin mining stocks are jumping on AI infrastructure boom. The Israel-Lebanon conflict remains active with Hezbollah launching a SAM at an Israeli jet. Overall, the Iran deal hopes are the key signal, but the situation remains fragile.