WS #8309

The dominant narrative in this window is the escalation of US-Iran tensions following fresh US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has labeled a ceasefire violation. This has pushed Brent crude above $99 and WTI near $93, with Polymarket contracts showing elevated probability of no peace deal by May 31. Multiple sources (Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, Seeking Alpha, EuropeSays) corroborate the strikes and Iran's condemnation, while the US continues to tout deal prospects—creating a high-signal geopolitical risk premium. The BOJ Governor's speech on supply shocks and oil price effects adds a macro layer, but the immediate market impact is concentrated in energy and defense. Separately, SK Hynix joined the $1 trillion club on AI memory dominance, reinforcing the AI semiconductor bull case. The Nikkei hit a record high, supported by BOJ commentary and tech strength. No counter-signals emerged to offset the oil supply risk.