WS #8337

The dominant signal in this window is the continued firming of a U.S.-Iran peace deal framework, with multiple sources (Alpaca, Bloomberg via Bluesky, Polymarket) corroborating that a draft MOU includes the U.S. lifting its naval blockade and the Strait of Hormuz returning to pre-war vessel traffic within one month. This has driven oil prices lower (Alpaca: 'Oil is trading lower following a draft U.S.-Iran MOU'), with second-order effects: energy bearish (XOM, CVX), airlines bullish (DAL, UAL, AAL), refiners bearish (MPC, PSX), and consumer discretionary bullish. The narrative arc for Iran de-escalation is ESCALATING (deal hopes firming). Separately, Israel launched over 120 airstrikes on Lebanon Tuesday, escalating its anti-Hezbollah offensive and risking collapse of the US-brokered ceasefire—this is a counter-signal to the broader Middle East peace narrative, complicating the Iran deal and keeping geopolitical risk elevated. On the earnings front, Marvell (MRVL) and Salesforce (CRM) report after the close, with analysts signaling strong expectations for MRVL on AI optical connectivity. PDD (Temu parent) warned of heavy spending, sending its stock lower. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index jumped to 13 vs 4 consensus, a positive macro surprise. Robinhood (HOOD) launched AI agentic trading, a potential catalyst. The UK sanctioned crypto exchange HTX over Russian sanctions evasion, adding regulatory risk to crypto. The narrative arc for Ukraine-Russia is STABLE (no new escalation in this window), for AI/semiconductor it is STABLE with MRVL earnings as a key catalyst.