WS #8349

The dominant theme remains the Iran conflict, which is ESCALATING with mixed signals. Trump stated during a cabinet meeting that the US is 'not there yet' on an Iran deal but that Iran is 'intent on a deal' (Reuters). The White House denied Iranian state TV reports of a draft MOU to reopen the Strait of Hormuz (Bluesky). However, a separate FT report (via Bluesky) indicates a draft deal would restore Strait of Hormuz shipping within a month. This creates a high-signal cross-current: hawkish rhetoric vs. diplomatic progress. Separately, Israel launched 120+ airstrikes on Lebanon in a single day, a major escalation that could broaden the regional conflict. On the commodity front, aluminum prices are up 17% since the US-Iran conflict began, with major desks warning of a supply shock (Bluesky). Oil prices are falling, boosting airline stocks (Alpaca). Canada announced plans to buy Saab's GlobalEye planes, shifting from US suppliers (Guardian, Bluesky), impacting BA and GD. In corporate news, Uber increased its stake in Delivery Hero to 24.99% (Regulatory filing via Bluesky). AI coding startup Cognition raised $1B at a $25B pre-money valuation (Bluesky). Lululemon resolved a dispute with founder Chip Wilson (Bluesky). Barclays raised price targets on several tech stocks: Micron to $1175, Seagate to $1000, Western Digital to $620, SanDisk to $2300. Michael Burry compared AI IPO hype to the dot-com bubble (Benzinga). Robinhood is allowing AI agents to trade stocks (Benzinga). The carry-forward from previous situational awareness includes the massive AAPL dark pool buying (ongoing) and the VRT whale call option bet (ongoing).