WS #8362

The dominant narrative remains the Iran nuclear deal and Israel-Hezbollah escalation, but this window shows the situation is STABLE with no material escalation or de-escalation. Multiple sources (Al Jazeera, NYT, Bloomberg, Polymarket) confirm conflicting US-Iran reports: Trump says no sanction relief and demands uranium surrender, while Iran refuses. Polymarket pricing shows a 62% chance WTI hits $85, up 32 points in 24h, suggesting the market is pricing in a potential Hormuz normalization that would deflate the war premium. However, Trump's statement that 'no one nation will control the Strait of Hormuz' counters Iranian demands, keeping the situation fluid. A separate development: Bloomberg reports Uber proposes a Delivery Hero takeover at $11.6B valuation, which could impact UBER and DHER. Meta is rolling out paid subscription tiers ($3.99/mo for Instagram/Facebook Plus, $2.99/mo for WhatsApp Plus), a new revenue stream that could boost META. Eli Lilly goes on a $20B buying spree, signaling aggressive M&A. Goldman says the Iran war dollar surge weighed on Treasury demand. Crude oil fell over 5% in the session, likely on Hormuz deal chatter. The EU pledged €28B in military aid to Ukraine, and von der Leyen said decisive steps on Ukraine's EU accession are coming. Israel bombed Tyre, Lebanon, and drone attacks on Ukraine continue. Home prices in 20 largest US cities fell 0.16% MoM in March, second consecutive decline. Bitcoin dropped below $75,000. JPMorgan shares fell as Dimon flagged higher costs. Cleveland-Cliffs surged on falling oil prices and a Barclays note. Overall, the macro picture is mixed: oil volatility, geopolitical uncertainty, and mixed earnings/analyst actions.