WS #8375

The dominant signal in this window is an escalation of geopolitical risk around the Strait of Hormuz, with President Trump threatening to 'blow up' Oman if it cooperates with Iran on controlling the waterway. This is corroborated by Al Jazeera, The Guardian, and multiple social media sources, marking a sharp escalation from prior rhetoric. The threat counters any nascent hopes for a diplomatic resolution and reinforces the blockade's persistence, which has already driven oil prices to elevated levels (WTI ~$89, Brent ~$95). Separately, Fed Governor Cook signaled readiness to raise rates if inflation lingers, adding hawkish pressure. On the earnings front, several major tech companies reported: Synopsys beat Q2 estimates and raised guidance, Marvell Technology raised its fiscal 2027/2028 outlook on AI demand, HP beat Q2 but lowered full-year guidance, and Salesforce beat Q1 but guided Q2 weak. Snowflake surged on strong Q1 results. The combination of escalating Middle East tensions and hawkish Fed commentary creates a stagflationary backdrop, while AI-related earnings continue to support tech selectively.