WS #8407

The US-Iran conflict has escalated sharply with fresh airstrikes, directly contradicting any hopes of a near-term ceasefire. The US struck a military facility in Bandar Abbas and downed Iranian drones, while Iran retaliated by targeting a US base in Kuwait. Trump dismissed reports of a Hormuz deal, warning he may have to 'finish the job.' Brent crude jumped 1.8% to $95.95, erasing Wednesday's decline. This escalation confirms the Strait of Hormuz crisis is intensifying, with vessel transits already down 93.8%. The narrative arc is clearly ESCALATING. Meanwhile, Ukraine struck Russia's Tuapse oil refinery, adding supply-side pressure. China's central bank guided banks to boost May lending, a modest stimulus signal. Ether fell below $2,000 with record futures open interest, suggesting aggressive shorting. Salesforce reported record revenue and a $27.5B capital return program, but the prior softer outlook remains. Zscaler dropped 30%+ post-earnings. The IEA chief noted oil investments may fall below $500bn in 2026, a long-term supply concern.