WS #8421

The dominant signal in this window is a potential de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict. Multiple sources (Axios, Seeking Alpha, Alpaca, and multiple Bluesky accounts) report that the US and Iran have reached a 60-day ceasefire extension agreement, but it requires President Trump's final approval. This development directly counters the prevailing escalation narrative from the previous window. Oil prices are already reacting negatively, with crude futures falling sharply on the news. Separately, Snowflake surged 35% on an AI-driven earnings beat and guidance raise, lifting the software sector. The Fed's Musalem and Williams both warned that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside and that AI's productivity effects are inconclusive, reinforcing a cautious Fed stance. Bitcoin and gold ETF outflows are cooling the debasement trade, per JPMorgan. The US-Iran narrative is now DE-ESCALATING pending Trump's decision, which is the key catalyst for oil, energy, and broader markets in the next 1-8 hours.