WS #8436

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict, which is ESCALATING despite ceasefire hopes. The US launched new strikes on Iran on Wednesday, pushing oil prices higher. However, a new development in this window is a Bloomberg report that 'US, Iran truce hopes lift stocks,' suggesting a potential de-escalation narrative is gaining traction. This is corroborated by Polymarket trades showing increased activity on Iran peace deal contracts and a post noting 'US stocks reverse losses on Iran deal report.' The Fed's Musalem gave a hawkish interview, stating the easing bias is no longer consistent and that a rate hike is possible, which counters any dovish pivot expectations. Inflation data shows US inflation surged to a three-year high (PCE 3.8% YoY) driven by energy costs. On the corporate side, Eli Lilly stock surged after securing expanded PBM coverage for its obesity drugs Zepbound and Foundayo. IBM and Red Hat's $5 billion commitment to secure open-source supply chains is a positive for cybersecurity. Toyota halted development of a next-gen Lexus EV, negative for EV sector sentiment. Corgi raised $106M at $2.6B valuation, tripling in three weeks. US spot Bitcoin ETFs turned negative YTD with $596M outflows as Bitcoin fell below $75,000. Dark pool alerts show large institutional orders in VUG, SPYM, and D. WFC echoed BAC saying consumer spend accelerating, credit quality healthy. A notable MAG7 carve-out: IBM whale alert shows $4.08M in call options, bullish signal contradicting any tech weakness narrative.