WS #8446

The dominant signal in this window is the US-Iran ceasefire extension and nuclear talks, which is de-escalating the geopolitical risk premium. Multiple sources (Financial Post, Alpaca News, Polymarket) report that the US and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and open formal nuclear talks, pending Trump's approval. This counters the prevailing bearish oil thesis from the previous window (Chevron warning, Strait of Hormuz blockade). The dollar fell against all major peers on this news. Separately, Anthropic raised $65B at a $965B valuation, leapfrogging OpenAI, reinforcing the AI investment theme. Chevron CEO Wirth's warning that oil prices are likely to rise due to the Iran war draining supplies is a counter-signal to the ceasefire optimism, creating a tug-of-war in energy markets. The S&P 500 options skew hit a complacency extreme, indicating low demand for downside protection despite geopolitical risks. The narrative arc is DE-ESCALATING on the Iran front, but with persistent oil supply concerns.