WS #8467

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating US-Iran situation, with multiple sources reporting conflicting claims. The US military has denied Iranian state TV claims that Iranian forces downed a US aircraft near Bushehr, stating all US air assets are accounted for. Separately, a Bloomberg report indicates the US and Iran have tentatively agreed to extend the ceasefire by 60 days, which would allow Strait of Hormuz shipments to resume. This is corroborated by Polymarket contracts on Iran ceasefire extension and oil price direction. However, a conflicting report from a BlueSky source claims new US airstrikes against Iran, while another source says Israel told the US any return to war would require strikes on Iran's entire energy infrastructure within 24 hours. The net effect is mixed: the ceasefire extension is bullish for oil supply normalization (bearish for oil prices), but the risk of escalation remains high. On the earnings front, several tech companies reported strong results. Snowflake (SNOW) surged 36% after-hours on a Q1 beat and a $6B AWS deal, igniting a broad AI software rally with ARM +10.8%, MDB +10.6% (+22% AH), NET +9%, PLTR +8.2%. Dell (DELL) also beat estimates significantly, with revenues beating by $8B and EPS beating by 68%, raising full-year guidance. MongoDB (MDB) reported solid earnings with EPS +12% vs estimates and revenue +25% YoY. First Solar (FSLR) soared to a multiyear high ahead of an anticipated Section 232 tariff announcement. These earnings signals are bullish for the tech/AI sector and could drive further upside in the next trading session. Other notable signals: A hedge fund (Voss Capital) is pushing Sempra to spin off its Texas electricity unit Oncor, which could impact SRE stock. The Louisiana House approved a new congressional map eliminating a majority-Black district, a political development with potential market implications for related sectors. Japan's rising bond yields are flagged as a risk of inflation increasing too much, which could impact Japanese equities and global bond markets. The Volgograd oil refinery fire from a Ukrainian drone attack is a minor geopolitical event with limited direct market impact.