WS #8469

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran situation, which is DE-ESCALATING but with conflicting signals. Multiple sources (Axios, CNBC, Bloomberg, Seeking Alpha) report a tentative 60-day ceasefire extension pending Trump's approval, which has caused oil to edge lower and rates to rally (10Y UST -2.8bp to 4.453%). However, Iran's IRGC Navy reportedly attacked four vessels including US ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran warned of a 'proportionate response' to further provocations. The US denied Iranian claims of downing an American aircraft. Vance stated Trump hasn't endorsed a deal due to enrichment disagreements. The net effect is mixed: the ceasefire extension is bullish for oil supply normalization (bearish for oil prices), but the risk of escalation remains high. Polymarket contracts show active trading on Iran ceasefire extension and peace deal outcomes. On the earnings front, Dell (DELL) surged 40% after-hours on a massive beat (revenues beat by $8B, EPS beat by 68%) and raised full-year guidance, signaling strong AI-driven demand for enterprise hardware. Snowflake (SNOW) surged 36.48% after-hours on a Q1 beat and $6B AWS deal, igniting a broad AI software rally. Elastic (ESTC) beat earnings but dropped -9.3% after-hours on disappointing guidance. First Solar (FSLR) soared to a multiyear high ahead of an anticipated Section 232 tariff announcement. These earnings signals are bullish for the tech/AI sector and could drive further upside in the next trading session. Tokyo May core CPI came in at +1.3% YoY vs +1.5% expected, a miss that could ease BOJ tightening pressure. RBNZ's Silk signaled rate increases are coming, with inflation pressures building. The US CDC expanded Ebola screening to JFK airport, a low-significance health measure. Samsung Electronics shipped HBM4E chip samples to global customers, positive for the semiconductor supply chain. Applied Materials CEO called it 'the greatest time in the history of the industry' for semiconductors, reinforcing the AI capex narrative.