WS #8603

The dominant signal in this window is the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis, with Iran formally reasserting control over the waterway and warning foreign vessels to comply with IRGC regulations. This is corroborated by Al Jazeera, a Bluesky post, and multiple Polymarket trades referencing the blockade and Iran deal timelines. The narrative is STABLE but with a slight escalation in enforcement, as no diplomatic breakthrough is reported. The US-Iran deal remains elusive, with Polymarket showing low probability for a peace deal by May 31. This continues to support bullish energy (XOM, CVX, XLE) and bearish airlines (DAL, UAL, AAL). Separately, a bearish thesis on GOOGL was posted by a trader citing regulatory risk and AI capex, but this is a single source and not corroborated. A Bloomberg article on Paramount Skydance's $110 billion bid for Warner Bros. Discovery is noted but is a single source and likely not immediately market-moving. The rest of the data is noise: sports results, entertainment withdrawals, and routine Polymarket trades.