WS #8611

The dominant signal in this window is the continued escalation of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, with container shipping rates doubling since the war with Iran began, as reported by Lloyd's List/Hacker News. Bunker fuel costs are up nearly 70%, and Shanghai-Los Angeles spot rates are up 59% since late February. This is corroborated by Polymarket contracts on Hormuz traffic returning to normal by end of June, indicating persistent market uncertainty. Additionally, Ukrainian drone strikes continue to hit Russian oil infrastructure, with a new attack on an oil depot in Taganrog, and Hezbollah has engaged Israeli forces near Debbine, further escalating geopolitical risk. A counter-signal emerges: wildfires in Canada's Alberta oil sands region threaten about 500,000 barrels per day of crude production, adding to supply disruption. The narrative remains ESCALATING. No new MAG7-specific signals or contradicting data were found in this window.