WS #8697

The dominant theme remains the escalating Middle East conflict, with no de-escalation signals. Multiple sources report that Trump sent tougher Iran deal terms after a Friday Situation Room meeting, including stricter nuclear limits and Strait of Hormuz access. Tehran's response may take days, and rejection risks escalation, sanctions uncertainty, and energy/shipping shocks. An Iranian kamikaze drone destroyed an oil refinery in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, adding to supply disruption risks. Rocket barrages targeted northern Israel, with sirens in Tiberias and the Lower Galilee. The Colombian presidential election first round results are confirmed: far-right outsider Abelardo de la Espriella leads left-wing Senator Ivan Cepeda 43%-40%, heading to a June 21 runoff. This is a slight deviation from pre-election polls that had Cepeda ahead, and de la Espriella's stronger-than-expected showing could boost Colombian equity and energy sentiment. Japan's 10-year bond yield hit a 40-year high of 2.809% amid fiscal concerns over a $19B supplementary budget, pressuring Japanese financials and global bond markets. China's luxury spending is rebounding as the stock market recovers, a positive signal for LVMH and related tickers. META layoffs targeting AI engineers are confirmed, adding to uncertainty around the stock. Nvidia CEO to kick off Computex in Taipei, a potential catalyst for NVDA. Coinbase launches direct INR rails for India's crypto market, a positive for COIN. The ECB inflation print and May US jobs data are key macro events this week. The narrative arc is ESCALATING for the Middle East conflict, with new drone strikes on Iraqi oil infrastructure and continued rocket fire on Israel. The Iran deal negotiations remain stalled, with Trump reportedly in no hurry.